Assuming the distribution of rare resources is completely random, what would you expect to get near your cities in a typical one on one game? This is a difficult question, partly because their appearance is so random and partly because there are maps that have special arrangements of rares (African Watering Hole and Colonial Powers come to mind). But I tried to do this anyway, just to see how things shake up. To start with I made some assumptions. If you want to use different assumptions based on your playstyle/experience, you can.

• Access to four rares
• There are 23 possible rares that appear in ancient age (I could be off in this). There are more rares, but they appear at later ages. Amber, Bison, Citrus, Copper, Cotton, Diamonds, Dye, Furs, Gems, Horses, Marble, Obsidian, Papyrus, Peacocks, Relics, Salt, Silk, Silver, Spice, Sugar, Tobacco, Wine, & Wool.
• Distribution is random (i.e., one rare does not appear any more frequently than another)

Based on this, you could calculate your expected take from rare resources. We take the average amount of each resource produced the potential early rares. This comes out to 13.9 food, 17.4 timber, 19.1 wealth, 13.9 metal, and 15.7 knowledge. Of course, you're never going to get 13.9 food from rares. You're probably going to get either 0, 10, 20, or maybe even 30 total food. Your probability of getting four non-food rares is probably ~20%, but you chance of getting four food rares is less than 1%. Understanding the expected amount can help you with planning. But at the end of the day doesn't mean that much. You will still have to scout effectively to find them, and you're probably still going to make a merchant to collect it.

posted by Tim at 12:06 PM